Puzzle or Mystery?

I’ve been reading an excellent book of late. Radical Uncertainty by leading economists John Kay and Mervyn King, highlights a number of challenges in our current era for leaders and decision makers. In the book, they suggest a key distinction for understanding what you are facing, and suggest the question “Is this a puzzle or a mystery?”

A puzzle might be complicated, but can eventually be comprehensively understood. Like a large jigsaw, once the edge is defined, all the pieces get assembled to create an recognisable picture. Even if there are pieces missing (Unknown, or moving data points), it's possible to get enough of a picture to make decisions with some certainty. The authors argue that it has been a long term default to view uncertainty through the ‘puzzle’ lens. The implication is that even if we can’t see the picture yet, we feel as if we might in the future. In some situations this will slow decision making and action unnecessarily while we wait for a clearer picture that may not arrive.

A mystery is essentially unknowable. There are simply too many ambiguous or undefinable elements to know the full picture. Imagine a box of 700 jigsaw puzzles all mixed together, where each piece is the exact shape and size of all others, all the edge pieces are missing, and only half have a clearly printed image. Where would you start? How would you know if it was done? In a mystery, waiting for a clear picture could be very detrimental. So could acting too early. 

You could be facing a mystery or a puzzle. In reality it’s probably several of each, potentially with no way of knowing which is which. In that case the only way to drive certainty is from within your team or organisation. Having a clear purpose and guiding principles/priorities will assist you to act, even in unknown/unknowable circumstances.

What guides you in the absence of external certainties?