Look Again
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Photo by Kaori Yokochi, Roberta Bencini, CC BY 4.0 eativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
“Possums are rare on hilltops and in open forest. They are mostly found in the creeklines.” This was an ‘obvious’ conclusion from a scientifically conducted survey of a vast area of forest to determine possum behaviour and ideal habitat. The multi-year surveys large areas with cameras, on foot and non lethal trapping programs.
For several years, possums were rarely seen outside the creek lines. Then one year, none were seen in the creeks. Researchers wondered if the possum population had been decimated. But then, there they were, on the hill tops. That year, possums were rarely found in creek lines.
One of the researchers described the challenges of ensuring conclusions drawn from evidence are valid. “Correlation is not Causation” is one of the mantras to avoid jumping to conclusions. Almost everything we investigate has some bias built in. How we ask, what we ask, and what we think the answers mean can all add up to assumptions that may not be valid.
Take the research about goal setting. There’s heaps of it, and generally it concludes goal setting (done well) equates to greater success. I often wonder how many people or companies have epically failed despite having well thought through goals. The ‘proof’ given are all highly successful people or businesses and the ‘obvious’ conclusion is goals equate to success.
Here are some of the researched down sides of goals:
At all costs - the goal is focussed on to the exclusion of all else resulting in missed opportunities, rushed or fudged work, exhaustion.
Inability to adapt - The goal adds to perceived difficulty of changing direction when circumstances dictate.
Assumed Control - The goal assumes a far greater level of control over variables than is reality.
Wrong Target - The wrong things are measured resulting in a different outcome than what was really being aimed for.
Unmeasurable - some things don’t readily yield to a defined target. E.g. What goal can be set for improving a close relationship? When is it done?
Uncertain Environments - When variables are unknown/unknowable, setting goals based on them is a folly. For example a farmer may set a goal for a particular crop yield, only to be faced with a drought. Her skill may improve the yield, but a lower yield than the goal does not make her a ‘failure’.
As we enter December and January, a period when we often review and reset goals, consider if they are the most effective methodology for what you are trying to achieve. If you’d like to explore some alternatives, let me know.