Finding Unusual Links

What have financial forecasting, survival and leadership capacity got to do with each other? This Friday I’m joining Michael Ford, CEO of Castaway Forecasting on Nick Samios’ Lunch Money podcast.

We’ll be exploring what leaders can do in messy, unpredictable and uncertain times. Among other mindsets, we’ll be talking about the value of forecasting possible outcomes to the situation you are in. This isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about maintaining mental flexibility to deal with a range of possibilities. Let’s take a doomsday prepper and an athlete who is sure they will win. Both are forecasting.

The pessimistic prepper invests time and resources to be ready for a bleak future. If their scenario comes true, it’s the best ‘I told you so’ story in history (assuming there’s anyone left to tell). Any other scenario will likely see them completely unprepared.

The athlete’s envisaged win is way more positive than the prepper, but if reality strays from their perfect outcome, they may be just as stuck.

Leadership includes the capacity to imagine many different outcomes, play them through and anticipate what you might do differently. The key is not to buy into them. Winning forecasts add pressure if you are losing. Doomsday forecasts add pressure if something unanticipated comes along. Consider many possibilities. Hold them lightly and accept whatever reality throws at you.

If you’d like to listen to the Lunch Money podcast episode here’s the link.