Into the unknown…

Image by Tracy Peltier from Pixabay

“So much depends on the outcome of … [insert your process, enquiry, application, etc here]”

I met with three CEO’s last week who echoed a theme. Much of the short to mid term future in their organisations depends on the outcome of things outside of their control. In each case, the outcome/s will require their organisation to change. The outcome/s will also dictate how palatable those changes will be. Whatever happens, there will be change and it will be reactive in nature.

“People are uncertain,” they told me.

Uncertain environments make detail difficult to map. Forecasting various probable outcomes is important work, but can add even more uncertainty.

Maybe you can relate. I know I can.

It's worth remembering that humans have always faced uncertainty. It is uncomfortable and we are pretty good at it. Like those 3 CEO’s you’ve got this.

Here are few things we can do in uncertain times to inject certainty for ourselves and those around us:

• Big picture - Where detail is lacking focus on the big picture. What direction are we heading in? What’s our Why? Is our purpose clear? Are there non-negotiables and principles to bring into focus? When detail is lacking, big picture guidance adds certainty. It gives clarity about what will guide future decisions. Focus on elements that fundamentally won’t change regardless of outcomes and future changes.

• Best Behaviour - Double down on how you treat each other. Focus on and reinforce the best of how people interact with each other in your organisation. When the going gets murky at our house, my partner and I call each other to kindness and integrity. Regardless of what happens, we at least have some certainty about how we will ‘be’ with each other.

• You know how to weave! One CEO, calling on her Maori heritage, likened the situation to being in a place where you don’t know what plants to gather to find the fibres to weave the mat. I reminded her that even if she didn’t know the plant, she could recognise a weavable fibre, and still knows how to weave. Whatever happens next, you know more than you think you do. Bring your deep knowledge and experience with you. The details of execution may be up for change, but you still know how to weave.

Resilience Disruption

Resilience is often framed in individual terms. I’m often called in by organisations to assist their staff to build personal resilience. It’s the right conversation but the wrong focus. The focus needs to shift to organisational resilience.

Why?

Disruption is on the rise. Chat GPT is topical right now, but it’s just one more (significant) disruption in a growing stream. Natural disasters (Turkey, NZ), Technological (Chat GPT) Geopolitical (China, Russia) Financial (interest rates) and more. All the uncertainty measures are trending up. Some steeply. Disruption won’t be stopping any time soon.

image by AnToineLanz from Pixabay

Individual resilience helps us deal with the direct impact we personally experience. A group of resilient individuals in an organisation can collectively handle impact. And they are even stronger in a resilient organisation.

One of the best ways to build organisational resilience is to focus on Psychological Safety (...the belief that one will not be punished or humiliated for speaking up with ideas, questions, concerns, or mistakes. Amy Edmondson).

If you don’t have (and actively maintain) Psychological Safety, you are flying blind in the storm. People will see problems, but say nothing. They’ll avoid responsibility. They’ll shy away from change or building new skills. They’ll fear for their security.

Think of almost any organisational challenge. Psychological Safety builds the resilience to effectively deal with it - Because people are more likely to be and bring their best.

If you are a leader, and you would like a clearer understanding of the behaviour that builds Psychological Safety - lets talk.

Goals?

“The biggest casualty of COVID will be goals and plans”. So said Jason Clarke, Mindworker when I interviewed him right back at the beginning of the pandemic.

I reckon he hit the nail on the head. Many of my goals and plans got sidelined, and no doubt yours did too. During that period we all experienced this together, but that kind of disruption happens all the time on a smaller scale.

Factors outside our control make a mockery of our plans. Consider some of these scenarios, any of which could leave your plans in a smoking pile. Some of them might be familiar:

• War breaks out in your region

• Interest rates climb, changing your financial reality

• New technology threatens or removes your job

• You or someone close to you becomes seriously injured or ill

• A competitor out-paces you

• Your entire worldly goods are lost in a natural disaster such as a fire or flood

• A funding program changes its costing model destroying the margins for your not for profit

• Your business is unable to source mission critical supplies

• You cannot find enough staff to run your business

I’m sure you know people who have been impacted by such realities. Maybe you are currently directly experiencing them yourself.

In the face of these kinds of disruption a typically constructed SMART goal may not stand up.

On survival courses we taught 5 priorities for survival. The priorities give clear focus to make a flexible plan that you can adapt to the reality you face.

Some of the sectors I work with find “Areas of Focus” a great way to handle uncertainty.

Regardless of how much duress you are currently under, being clear about your top priorities and key areas of focus is part of creating a psychologically safe environment that withstands disruption.

What are you focussing on in 2023?

If you’d like a conversation about planning for/in uncertainty, I’d love to hear from you.

Thank you for sharing 2022 with us.

Thank you for sharing 2022 with us. It’s been another epic year of fast paced change and uncertainty. Many of you have shared appreciation for these messages, and have told us how you are putting them into action. Others have asked questions or challenged some of the assumptions behind my thinking, and I love that too. The combination of appreciation and robust feedback has me always looking for new edges and tools that genuinely help to create capacity when we are under the pump.

Next year, it seems the uncertainty will continue. Geopolitical challenges, shortages of staff, higher interest rates, and high levels of fatigue continue to be themes. Be kind to yourself, the people around you, especially people in service roles. We all need it.

In 2022 we've road tested tools to measure psychological safety and trust in teams. The results have been great, with teams significantly shifting the dial on these measures and developing awareness of specific behaviour that makes it possible to do so. We’d love to get that work out to more organisations in 2023. If it’s of interest to you, or someone you know, click here for a coffee or a call to find out more about it.

Thank you once again. Raising the capacity of leaders like you to handle uncertainty and duress is what lights me up. It’s been a pleasure to share the road with you. As 2022 draws to a close, I wish you and the people close to you a peaceful and joy filled holiday season.

We look forward to sharing 2023 with you.

Cheers

Mike House and Team

Create Certainty in an Uncertain World

So uncertainty is still a thing. The frequency the phrase “these uncertain times” is used has been on a steep upward trajectory since the mid 60’s. Things keep happening where the final outcomes are unknown. Some have global impact like COVID or Russia invading Ukraine. Others are deeply personal like a loss or dire diagnosis. As leaders, one of our mission critical roles is to create a sense of certainty in an uncertain world. But how the hell do you do that, especially if you are currently facing unknown (and perhaps unknowable) factors and end points?

The key is to focus on what we can control. Build clarity about:

• Overall purpose, mission, or direction. Where are you headed and why?

• How you will act with each other internally, especially in the face of pressure. How will you respond to conflict, constructive suggestions, identified problems or barriers, achievements, setbacks? The more certain you can make how you “Be” together, the more effective what you “Do” about uncertainty becomes.

• Remain open and curious. An explorer's mindset is better than having all the answers.

All this takes time and focus. Sometimes it feels unproductive. When you nail it, you can travel faster because you can boldly rely on each other, regardless of the current circumstances.

What story will we tell?

When I was working as a Survival Instructor, one of the most effective ways to create uncertainty and duress was to give people incomplete information. Humans are natural story and meaning makers. If something is incomplete, or doesn’t make sense, we can't help it, we make a story to fill the gaps. Often the stories are not helpful.

Early on in my business, I was lousy at follow up. The story I told myself if I hadn’t heard back from a potential client was that they didn’t want my services and wouldn’t appreciate hearing back from me. With incomplete information from people, I was filling the gaps. On a rare occasion that I was following up someone told me they were very grateful for the follow up. They thought the work we were planning was really important, but it was getting buried in short term priorities. My follow up was keeping it active on the list. I was totally surprised by his reaction, because it was so different from the story I was telling myself. I’m much better about follow up now. The story I tell myself now is that it’s part of my job and most people appreciate it, if it’s done well.

As leaders we operate continuously on partial information. It’s also not possible to tell everybody everything you know, so they are operating on part information too.

Tuning in to the stories you and others are telling to fill the gaps is a useful leadership skill. Ask questions like:

• What information do we have?

• What assumptions are we making about it?

• What stories are we telling? Are they true? Are they effective? Are they leading to the action/results we are looking for?

Is there a better story to tell?